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>> OLED panel industry development prospects: the cost is expected to decline rapidly
First, the market quickly penetrates. Li Yaqin predicts that in the fourth quarter of 2016, the penetration rate of the AMOLED panel in China's smart phone market will approach 30%, higher than the penetration rate of 20% in the global market. Earlier, the media has reported that 2018 Apple will use AMOLED panel. In addition to Apple, the largest AMOLED mobile phone panel users in the Chinese market is expected to be OPPO. Samsung has actively promoted AMOLED panel sales in the Chinese market in recent years. OPPO and VIVO are being used as strategic partners.
Like OPPO, the 2015 AMOLED panel has a penetration rate of 20% in its handsets and will reach nearly 50% this year, growing very rapidly. "Because AMOLED is the seller's market, supply and demand sides will determine the entire AMOLED ecology." Li Yaqin said. Huawei and OPPO are definitely different. In 2015, the penetration rate of AMOLED panels in their mobile phones was almost zero, and maintained at 5% in 2016.
Second, investment is strong. Li Yaqin said that in the global mobile phone panel production capacity of the sixth and the sixth generation and below, the AMOLED accounted for about 40% by 2018 and nearly 50% by 2020. Considering the yield and other factors, OLED's The proportion of volume will be slightly lower, is expected in 2020 in the 6th generation and below generation mobile phone panel shipments accounted for 40% to 45%.
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Third, the cost and liquid crystal (LCD) close. "This is a very surprising point for the domestic industry, rigid AMOLED costs dropped rapidly, especially from 2014 to the present." Li Yaqin said AMOLED costs plummeted, 5.5-inch FHD (Full HD) LCD screen mobile phone costs have declined Not so fast.
Due to different structural principles, AMOLED's material cost is much lower than that of LCD, accounting for nearly 60% of LCD's cost, but the cost of AMOLED's material accounts for only 40% -45%. Other major depreciation, amortization and yield costs. "The AMOLED line, which was invested by the leading companies, depreciated some production lines soon, that is, the depreciation cost which accounts for nearly 30% will rapidly decline and the AMOLED cost will decline rapidly."
Li Yaqin predicts: "The cost of the OLED panel will gradually approach LCD panel costs, even below the LCD cost in the foreseeable future, which will be the biggest challenge for the LCD industry and how to maintain its competitiveness is critical."
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