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>> Summary of the global LCD TV panel market in the first quarter of 2020: short-term fluctuations, alternative opportunities appear 7th,May,2020
Affected by the new crown epidemic, "Supply Chain Resumption" and "Demand Fluctuation" became the uncertain factors that lingered in the global TV panel market in the first quarter of 2020. These factors have broken the conventional rhythm of the TV panel market and provided future market development Cast more uncertainty. According to Sigmaintell data, the number of global LCD TV panel shipments in the first quarter of 2020 was 63.03 million, a significant decline of 10.6% year-on-year; the shipment area was 373.8 million square meters, a slight decline of 3 .2%.
2018. Q1 ～ 2020. Q1 Global LCD TV panel shipments and year-on-year trends (unit: million pieces, year-on-year%)
2018. Q1 ～ 2020. Q1 Global LCD TV panel shipment area and year-on-year trend (unit: million pieces, year-on-year%)
Shipment ranking: Mainland China accounts for 55% of the various manufacturers affected by the epidemic
1. Manufacturers in Mainland China
BOE (BOE)
In the first quarter, shipments were 11.33 million pieces, and shipments were 7.1 million square meters. In 2019, BOE (BOE) LCD TV panel shipments surpassed LGD (LG Display) for the first time. After achieving first place in both number and area of shipments, from the perspective of shipment performance in the first quarter of 2020, The number of shipments is firmly ranked first in the world. In terms of production capacity and products, in the first quarter, BOE Wuhan's 10.5 generation line was in the trial production stage of small batches. After mass production, it will mainly supply 65-inch, 75-inch and other large sizes; at the same time, BOE also achieved the shipment of 8K panels in the first quarter With the mass production of brand customers, it is expected to further increase its share and competitiveness in the super-large size and 8K market.
CSOT (TCL Huaxing)
In the first quarter, CSOT (TCL Huaxing) strived to overcome the impact of supply chain and resumption of work, basically maintaining a high utilization rate, its shipments and shipment area were 10.8 million pieces and 6.63 million square meters, and the global ranking rose from fourth to second . In the first quarter, under the situation of tight supply and demand, CSOT had a stable supply guarantee, and the large-size shipments of 55 inches and 65 inches increased slightly from the previous month. It also achieved stable delivery to the main customers and further solidified the brand customer base.
HKC (Hui Ke)
Compared with 2019, Huike's shipment ranking in the first quarter of 2020 has moved up one place to sixth in the world. Shipment volume and shipment area reached 6.1 million pieces and 220 square meters, respectively. At present, in addition to the mass-produced Chongqing and Chuzhou 8.6 production lines in Huike, Mianyang G8.6 production lines will also be mass-produced at the end of the second quarter, and the Changsha production line is under construction. With the gradual shutdown of LCD TV production lines by Korean panel manufacturers, Huike's capacity expansion will also usher in more market space, and its market share is expected to increase further. However, its size structure is still single, and the proportion of 4K products is relatively low. What needs to be improved in the future is the product structure and technical strength.
CHOT (Rainbow Optoelectronics)
CHOT (Rainbow Optoelectronics) shipped 2.71 million panels in the first quarter, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, low inventory levels, a solid customer base, and monthly production capacity will be further increased to 150K.
CEC-Panda (CEC Panda)
CEC-Panda (CEC Panda) shipments in the first quarter affected by the epidemic fell by 14% month-on-month. With the withdrawal of Korean panel manufacturers' production capacity, domestic and foreign brands are expected to further strengthen their cooperation with them. However, continuous loss pressure has brought a lot of instability to CEC-Panda's panel business. In the future, more reforms are needed to improve operating losses.
2. Manufacturers in South Korea
In the first quarter, LGD (LG Display) and SDC (Samsung Display) LCD TV production in the front stage was basically stable month-on-month. However, due to the resumption of the factory in the mainland, the shipments of Korean manufacturers fell by more than 30% year-on-year, and the global share fell To 21%. As South Korea ’s LCD capacity is further closed after the second quarter, its share is expected to decline further. Among them, LGD will continue to supply the market with the capacity of 8.5 generation LCD factories in Guangzhou, and SDC will gradually withdraw from LCD TV supply.
3. Manufacturers in Taiwan
The shipments of Taiwanese factories also suffered a significant drop due to the epidemic, but AUO (Innolux) and Innolux (Innolux) continued to implement differentiated strategies. On the one hand, focus on TV products in differentiated sizes; on the other hand, shift the focus of shipment to IT.
4. Manufacturers in Japan
Sharp (Sharp): In the first quarter still maintained a high utilization rate, but the shipments were full of weakness, and inventories continued to be high. In the second quarter, Sharp G10 will drastically lower the utilization rate to adjust the inventory level, and the Guangzhou 10.5 generation line will accelerate the introduction of brand customers. It is expected that mass production will be achieved for brand customers in the second quarter.
2020. Ranking of global LCD TV panel shipments in Q1 (unit: million)
2020. Q1 Global LCD TV panel shipment area ranking (unit: million square meters)
Sigmaintell summarized the overall characteristics of the global LCD TV panel market performance in the first quarter as follows:
1. Short-term supply of panel materials is tight due to the resumption of Chinese New Year
The delay in the resumption of manufacturing in the mainland China ’s manufacturing sector and the unfavorable industrial logistics in the first quarter caused a certain impact on the panel industry with complex industrial chain links, especially reflected in the shortage of raw materials such as polarizers and PCBA and the delay in the resumption of labor for the panel production Greater impact. From the perspective of panel factory shipments, it is mainly reflected in the sharp decline in shipments in February, and the sharp improvement in March. According to the statistics of Sigmaintell, the global LCD TV panel shipments in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by about 3% from the normal value.
2. Tension of panel supply and demand intensified in the first quarter, and prices fluctuated significantly
According to Sigmaintell's "Supply and Demand Model" calculations, the epidemic affects the global LCD TV panel supply and demand ratio of 4.2% in the previous quarter, showing a tight supply and demand situation, but under the influence of the above factors, the supply and demand relationship is more tight. After the panel price began to rise structurally in December last year, it ushered in a comprehensive increase in January. In February, due to the above factors, panel prices fluctuated significantly. Overall, the weighted average price of LCD TV panels rose by 10% in the first quarter.
However, as supply chain recovery and the negative impact of the epidemic on demand emerged, panel prices stopped rising in March. In the second quarter, overseas epidemics continued to spread. Especially in Europe and the United States, the social isolation policy was adopted. Due to factors such as the suspension of production in factories, the cessation of logistics, and the closure of offline stores, global panel demand showed short-term stagnation. Sigmaintell estimates that the overall supply-demand ratio of the global LCD TV panel market in the second quarter is 7%, showing a clear oversupply. If the panel factory does not adjust the utilization rate and supply structure, panel prices once again enter the downward channel.
From 2020.1 to 2020.6 LCD TV panel price increase and decrease (unit:%)
3. The average size of global TV panels continues to grow, and the rate of large-scale TV has not yet been affected by the epidemic
From the perspective of product structure changes, the large-scale process in the first quarter was not affected by the off-season effect and epidemic situation, and the average size continued to increase. In the first quarter, the average size of global LCD TV panel shipments reached 46.1 inches, a month-on-month increase of 0.1 inches, and a significant year-on-year increase of 1.6 inches. From the perspective of size structure, the share of 32-inch and below size segments decreased from 38% in the first quarter of 2019 to 32.5% in the first quarter of 2020, and the share fell by 5.5 percentage points year-on-year. The share of the mid-size segment from 40 inches to 50 inches increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, while the share of large and super-large sizes of 55 inches and above increased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year.
Combined with the performance of the terminal market, it can be found that the large-scale global LCD TV market is fermenting globally. In addition to leading markets such as China and North America, the size structure of emerging countries and regions is being upgraded.
2018. Q1 ～ 2020. Q1 LCD TV panel average size trend (unit: inches)
Fourth, the introduction of new terminal products drives the 8K panel shipments to grow significantly
4K has entered the period of full popularization. From the perspective of new technologies, brands based on Samsung Electronics and Sony actively introduced new products in 2020 in the first quarter, and 8K has become a hot technology for new products. Affected by this, 8K panel shipments have increased significantly. It is worth mentioning that, after SDC and AUO, BOE achieved mass production shipments of 8K panels in the first quarter, thereby increasing the number of global 8K panel manufacturers to 3 panel manufacturers. In 2020, Innolux, CSOT, and CEC-Panda all have mass production plans for 8K TV panels. In the future, 8K panel supply will become more abundant.
Fifth, the Korean factory accelerated its withdrawal, and alternative opportunities appeared in the market
Since the price of TV panels entered a downward trajectory in 2018, although prices once fluctuated and rose in stages, the TV business of global panel manufacturers continued to face profit challenges. The turbulence in demand has exacerbated this situation, so the Korean factory gradually withdrew from LCD TV supply and turned to seek capacity upgrades and more revolutionary products to ensure and enhance profitability. This brings short-term alternative opportunities to existing manufacturers. From the current competitive landscape:
Manufacturers in Mainland China: In this round of elimination, manufacturers in Mainland China have gradually achieved scale advantages and deepened cooperation with domestic and international brands. 10. The mass production of the Gen 5 line has enabled mainland Chinese manufacturers to maintain a dominant position in the full-size segment.
Taiwanese manufacturers: rely on their own production lines and product flexibility, refined management and differentiation strategies to maintain competitiveness; their production line capacity is basically stable, and the product structure and customer base are also relatively stable.
Sigmaintell believes that overall, the withdrawal of the Korean factory will bring alternative opportunities to the above manufacturers, especially the ramp-up of the new production line that will be mass-produced this year will be significantly improved. However, the development of the market is often dynamic and balanced. The future market structure still depends on relative competitiveness, and whether the TV panel industry can return to profit depends on the overall supply and demand relationship of the market.
At the same time, we should also actively pay attention to the demand. In addition to causing short-term stagnation and rhythm changes in global demand, the epidemic may change consumers' habits of using end products in the long run.
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